A Mint poll of 20 economists predicted domestic retail inflation might come at 5.99 percent, near the upper tolerance level of RBI’s target of 6 percent, in January.
In a report, Mint, however, added that the economists were divided about inflation. While some said it would be around the same level as it was in December, others said it may have risen again in January.
The poll estimates ranged from 5.43 percent to 6.40 percent, with the median at 5.99 percent.
Retail inflation fell below 6 percent in November and December 2022 due to cooling vegetable prices. But sticky core inflation remains a concern.
In December 2022, the inflation rate was at 5.72 percent.
“Notwithstanding the welcome softening in the prices of several essential commodities and healthy rabi sowing trends an unfavourable base could cause the food inflation print to harden somewhat in January," Mint quoted Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, saying so.
In the last policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said the inflation outlook was mixed, due to the global uncertainty on demand prospects and risks of supply disruptions. RBI projected inflation averaging at 5.7 percent in the January-March quarter.
Meanwhile, a report from the Economic Times (ET) highlighted RBI’s latest survey on households’ inflation expectations which indicated inflation expectations of households rose for the three months-ahead periods.
"Inflation expectations of Indian households for three months ahead rose by 10 basis points (bps) compared to the November 2022 round of the central bank’s survey. Expectations for one year ahead remained unchanged from November at 10.8 percent," the ET report said.
