scorecardresearchIndia slips to 3rd among emerging markets; Ukraine war weighs

India slips to 3rd among emerging markets; Ukraine war weighs

Updated: 22 Apr 2022, 09:23 AM IST
TL;DR.

  • India’s growth is expected to be impinged by high crude prices and their impact on consumer demand and private consumption.

Many rating agencies and financial firms have cut India's FY23 growth forecast due to high inflation led by the Russia-Ukraine war.

Many rating agencies and financial firms have cut India's FY23 growth forecast due to high inflation led by the Russia-Ukraine war.

India has slipped to the third rank among the emerging markets (EMs) on disruptions led by the Kraine war, Mint’s monthly EM tracker showed.

"India slipped to the third rank in the EM league table in March as the Russia-Ukraine war weighed on the country’s performance, adding to inflationary pressures, weakening the currency, and sending stock prices lower, according to the latest update to Mint’s monthly EM tracker. Indonesia gained from high commodity prices and emerged on top, followed by the Philippines, reported Mint.

Mint’s Emerging Markets Tracker, launched in September 2019, considers seven high-frequency indicators across 10 large EMs to assess India’s relative position in the league table. It is updated around three weeks after a month ends once all data becomes available.

India’s growth is expected to be impinged by high crude prices and their impact on consumer demand and private consumption.

Many rating agencies and financial firms have cut India's FY23 growth forecast due to high inflation led by the Russia-Ukraine war.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on April 19 lowered India’s FY23 economic growth forecast to 8.2 percent from 9 percent estimated in January, highlighting the impact of surging crude oil prices on consumer demand and private investments.

IMF also cut India’s FY24 growth forecast to 6.9 percent from 7.2 percent estimated earlier. Besides, it expects India’s inflation to average 6.1 percent in FY23 and ease to 4.8 percent in FY24.

IMF also trimmed the global growth forecast for 2022 and 2023 by 0.8 percentage points and 0.2 points, respectively, to 3.6 percent. “The downgrade largely reflects the war’s direct impacts on Russia and Ukraine and global spillovers,” Mint quoted IMF's report.

The World Bank on April 13 lowered India’s economic growth forecast for the financial year 2022-23 to 8 percent from 8.7 percent estimated in January.

RBI has projected real GDP growth for the financial year 2022-23 at 7.2 percent assuming crude oil (Indian basket) at US$ 100 per barrel during 2022-23.

Morgan Stanely sees India's FY23 growth at 7.9 percent while ADB sees the Indian economy growing at 7.5 percent in FY23.

Fitch Ratings has cut India's FY23 GDP growth to 8.5 percent from 10.3 percent earlier while ICRA has also lowered India's FY23 growth forecast to 7.2 percent from 8 percent.

India Ratings (Ind-Ra) has cut India's FY23 growth forecast to 7-7.2 percent from 7.6 percent.

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First Published: 22 Apr 2022, 09:23 AM IST