“The response by Adani had a mixed effect on the stock group and market. The saga is likely to continue as a hanging risk in the minds of the investors in the medium-term. To expect a scientific assessment report either by a strong independent third party or government is dim in the short-term. Now the focus of the market will be on budget and fed policy.”

Adani Enterprises rose nearly 4 percent while Adani Ports was flat for the day. Adani Total Gas and Adani Green Energy hit their 20 percent lower circuit whereas Adani Transmission shed 15%. Adani Power and Adani Wilmar ended at their 5% lower circuit each.

Indian markets ended higher on Monday led by gains in bluechips Bajaj Finance, Adani Enterprises, RIL and Infosys. The Sensex ended 169 points higher at 59,500 while the Nifty rose 62 points to 17,667. Broader markets, however, ended flat but in the red. Among sectors, Nifty oil & gas fell the most (3.5%), dragged by Adani Total Gas which hit its 20% lower circuit. Nifty Metal and Nifty FMCG also shed half a percent each. On the other hand, Nifty Bank and Nifty Fin Services recovered to end the day in green and Nifty IT rose over 1 percent.

Apart from Adani Enterprises, which gained nearly 4 percent, all other Adani stocks ended lower on the back of the Hindenburg allegations. Bajaj Finance was the top gainer, up 4.5 percent on the back of strong Q3 results.

Bajaj Finserv reported a net consolidated profit of ₹1,782.02 crore for the December quarter of the financial year 2022-23, up 41.90 percent from ₹1,255.79 crore in the year-ago period. The revenue from operations came in at ₹21,755.15 crore, rising 23.70 percent from ₹17,586.74 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year, the company said in an exchange filing.

Punjab National Bank reported a massive 44 percent year-on-year fall in net profit at ₹628.8 crore for the December quarter. The bottomline was dragged down by a sharp rise in provisions and a modest growth in income. The public sector lender's provisions rose by 40 percent to ₹4,713 crore in the reported quarter from ₹3353 crore in the year-ago period.

GAIL reported Q3 results with EBIDTA/PAT of ₹260 crore (-85 percent Q/Q) and ₹250 crore (-84 percent Q/Q) respectively. Result was weak and sharply lower across segments- transmission EBIT at ₹430 crore (Q2: ₹700 crore), trading – ₹86 crore (Q2: ₹360 crore), LPG – ₹29 crore (Q2: ₹500 crore).  The stock fell 5% post the Q3 results.

Shares of Vedanta rose over a percent in early deals on BSE on January 30 but soon erased all gains to trade over a percent lower. The stock witnessed volatility after the metals and mining giant reported a 42.25 percent year-on-year (YoY) drop in its consolidated net profit for the December quarter of the financial year 2022-2023 (Q3FY23) post-market hours in the previous session on January 27. Vedanta reported a 42 percent YoY decline in consolidated net profit to ₹3,092 crore for Q3FY23 against a net profit of ₹5,354 crore in the year-ago period. However, on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis, net profit grew 15 percent to ₹3,092 crore from ₹2,690 crore. READ MORE

Shares of Adani Group remained volatile on Monday January 30, 2023 as war of words between the group and US-based short-seller Hindenburg Research continued over the weekend. Adani Total Gas is down 20%, Adani Enterprises is up 3.33%, Adani Green Energy is down 17.5%, Adani Transmission is down 20%, Adani Ports is up 1.2%, Adani Power is down 5% and Adani Wilmar is down 5%, too. Five Adani companies on Monday lost ₹1 lakh 33 crore in market cap. Adani Enterprises and Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone stocks gained ₹15,914 crore, and ₹3,235.42 crore. READ MORE

While the brokerage has increased its FY23E EPS estimates by 21% due to higher than expected other income, it cut FY24E/FY25E EPS estimates by 13%/4% respectively and our TP to Rs898 (Rs1,012 earlier) as we re-align our margin assumptions for Nodwin. While benefits of operating leverage would kick in once new Esports IPs and D2C brands become well established, it would put pressure on margins in the interim due to ongoing investment drive. 

Hence, it expect Nodwin to report EBITDA margin of 0.5%/3.5%/7% in FY23E/FY24E/FY25E respectively. Nonetheless, despite margin pressure, one of the key positive highlight was improvement in KPIs of Kiddopia with subscriber growth returning back after 3 quarters with yet another price hike of 11% in Dec. Overall, we expect sales/PAT CAGR of 27%/36% respectively over FY23E-25E.

The domestic market is experiencing strong bouts of volatility. Equity barometer Sensex fell over 600 points after rising over 300 points in the first half of trade on January 30. While analysts advise investors to wait till the clamour around the Adani Group, Union Budget and US Fed settles, they also highlight the opportunities in some stocks. Thes include: Divi's Labs, PVR, Sona BLW, Emami, Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors, and ITC. READ MORE

Shares of Sterlite Technologies jumped 6.1 percent on Monday, January 30, after the company reported a net profit of ₹50 crore in Q3 FY23, a turnaround compared to the losses of ₹138 crore in the same period the previous year. Sequentially, the net profit was up 13.6 percent from ₹44 crore in the September 2022 quarter. “We demonstrated a sharp focus on growth areas, operational efficiencies and strategic capital allocation, resulting in strong financial performance,” the company said in a statement. Read More

“As this is the last full-year Budget before the Union Election in 2024, we expect it to be growth-oriented. The primary focus of the Budget is likely to be on job creation and investment-driven growth. The real estate sector may get a boost with some announcements to expand the current income tax benefit for housing. Measures to stimulate rural spending and infrastructure development would be the highlight in the Budget. Any roadmap to build and bolster the entrepreneurship culture can promote self-reliance and go a long way in employment generation. Overall, with its focus on growth and development, this Budget may have something for everyone. FMCG, Manufacturing, MSME, and Banking are a few sectors that may see action.”

Indian markets declined with Nifty and Sensex down over half a percent each after Adani Group stocks pared morning gains. While Adani Enterprises is now up just around 2%, all other Adani stocks are in the red. Most sectors are also down with oil & gas leading the fall. Nifty Bank and Nifty Metal also lost around a percent each, however, Nifty IT and Nifty Pharma were in the green. At 1:30 pm, the Sensex was down 394 points at 58,936 while the Nifty fell 117 points to 17,486.

Nifty index has given a breakdown from its long consolidation of last 20 trading sessions with surge in volatility index. It is facing sustained supply near to its key moving averages and it started to form lower top - lower bottom in multiple time scale. It has broken previous month’s low along with formation of Bearish Engulfing pattern which has negative implication. Looking at the overall chart structure, bounce could be sold as recent trend got deteriorated after breaking key support of 17777-17850 zones. As of now till it doesn’t negate the structure of lower top - lower bottom, weakness could extend towards 17350 and 17200 zones while key resistances are shifting lower to 18000 marks.

India VIX has seen spurt in last three trading sessions from 13.30 to 19 zones and hovering at highest levels of last 15 weeks. Surge in Volatility with decline in prices ahead of Union Budget suggests some sort of concern in the market. It is advised to hedge your existing long position by buying Protective Puts or initiate Bear Put Spread in Weekly or Monthly expiries. It is also advised to reduce the cost of position in delivery by writing higher strike Calls in selective F&O stocks (Covered Call) as upside seems to be capped for time being.

VST Industries reported Q3FY23 performance below our estimates; Revenue grew 5.2% to ₹340 crore, while EBITDA/PAT cut by 13.2/4.5% due to higher sales from leaf tobacco exports. We estimate cigarette volume decline of ~3.0%, due to high base along and also consumer shift, buying more of RSFT cigarettes (Rs10/ stick). Gross margin fell by 583bp to 47.3% due to (1) higher raw material cost - tobacco +10% and paper & filter +12% on the back of global supply chain shortage (2) product mix, and (3) higher sales from leaf tobacco. EBITDA margin cut to 27.3% (-581bp) on account of higher employee cost (+7.3%) & other expenses (+3.7%) while trade promotion cost remained flat.

Management indicated, despite challenging macro condition and changing consumer preferences to RSFT, VST need to ramp up its offering in the core markets UP/Bihar in addition to AP/Telangana. Further, rising input RM/PM could weigh high on margins in Q4 in our view. Considering weaker Q3, we cut earnings and retain BUY rating, with a revised DCF-based TP Rs4,026 (implying 18.3x avg. FY24E/FY25E EPS).

Strides Pharma Sciences (Strides) posted strong numbers in Q3FY2023 with the fifth consecutive quarter of a sequential improvement in EBITDA margins to 13.5% from 0.6% in Q3FY2022. Revenues grew by 8.9% y-o-y to Rs. 864.8 crore; adjusted PAT stood at Rs. 61.3 crore. US business continued to grow at a strong rate in Q3FY2023, since Q1FY2023. The company management is hopeful of reaching to pre-COVID EBITDA margins in the short term. The stock has corrected by 16% over the last one year and is trading at a reasonable valuation of 11.6x/8.3x its FY2024E/FY2025E earnings. Sharekhan retains its Buy recommendation on the stock with an unchanged PT of ₹450. 

Strides’ US business is on the recovery path and has been growing out of multiple headwinds such as high price erosion. Moreover, the acquired portfolio has been integrated and has added to the company’s performance. Also, the company has implemented cost-control measures, which are expected to yield benefits in the subsequent quarters, said the brokerage.

NTPC reported an adjusted PAT of ₹4,420 crore – 18 percent YoY growth in Q3, taking M9FY23 growth to 10 percent YoY. PAT was above consensus/our estimates, with under-recovery coming down and 3Q turning out to be a decent quarter from the incentive perspective. The brokerage maintains a buy with a March 2024 TP of ₹200. Emkay raised its EPS estimates by 4 percent each for FY23/FY24/FY25. High utilization, strong capacity addition and RE monetization are all positives for the company, said Emkay.

"A budget expectation this year is a relief for income taxpayers. The basic exemption limit of ₹2.5 lakh crores was fixed in 2014 and, therefore, needs revision. Raising the exemption limit to ₹4 lakh crores is likely. This relief is likely to be offered in the ‘ no exemption regime’ since the government wants this regime to take off.

Rationalisation of the capital gains tax regime is another expectation. The current system is complex with different tax rates and holding periods for different investments. This needs simplification."

‘Though recently there has been some net outflow in terms of FPI investment, foreign investors are still preferring the FPI route for their investments as India continues to be a preferred investment destination in terms of overall growth and stability. There has been overall development in the capital market like the stock exchanges moving to T+1 settlement, SEBI introducing information databases and repositories on Municipal Bonds. Similarly, the fiscal budget 2023 is likely to provide further acceleration for the foreign investment inflows as demonstrated by the Government in its previous budgets.’

Shares of Bharat Electronics (BEL) declined 4 percent in the first hour of trade on January 30 after the company declared its December quarter earnings. The Navratna PSU firm missed estimates in terms of profitability during the third quarter of FY23 while higher raw material costs impacted the EBITDA margins. However, revenue was in line with expectations. 3.

Share price of Bajaj Finance gained over 3 percent on January 30. It was the top index gainer after the NBFC reported a 40 percent year-on-year (YoY) jump in its consolidated net profit at ₹2,973 crore for the Q3FY23, largely in line with analysts’ expectations. On a standalone basis, the company's net profit grew 36 percent to ₹2,624 crore. The net profit surge comes from a healthy growth in disbursements that lifted net interest income by 24 percent to ₹7,435 crore for the December quarter.

Shares of Data Patterns (India) surged 13 percent to ₹1,317.75 on the BSE in Monday's intra-day trade after the company reported a strong performance in the December quarter, wherein the revenue and profit after tax (PAT) more-than-doubled. As on date, it has healthy orders of ₹890.40 crore in hand, the company said in an exchange filing. Revenue from operations for the quarter increased to ₹111.8 crore, up 160 percent year-on-year (YoY). The company's PAT zoomed 272 percent YoY at ₹33.32 crore.

Indian markets trimmed losses to turn green on Monday as Adani Enterprises and Adani Ports hit their 10% upper circuit in trade. However, other Adani stocks were in the red. Among sectors, Banks, metals continued to decline while auto, FMCG and pharma were in the green. At 9:40 am, the Sensex was up 245 points at 59576 while the Nifty rose 101 points at 17,705. Broader markets remained in the red with the midcap and smallcap indices down 1.5-2 percent.

Adani Group stocks recovered a bit in early deals on Monday after the Group issued a 413-page response, calling Hindenburg allegations an attack on India. Adani Group said the report was driven by "an ulterior motive" to "create a false market" to allow the US firm to make financial gains.

While Adani Enterprises and Adani Ports were in the green, up 3-5 percent; the other Adani stocks fell between 5-15 percent.

Indian markets opened in the red on Monday, extending losses for the fourth straight session with the Sensex down 549 points at 58,781 while the Nifty fell 149 points to 17,455 at 9:17 am. Broader markets were also in the red with the midcap and smallcap index down 1.5 percent each. Among sectors, Nifty Bank lost 3 percent while Nifty Fin Services shed 2.5 percent. Nifty Metal fell the most, down 5 percent along with Nifty PSU Bank. Only, Nifty Pharma, Nifty Auto and Nifty FMCG were in the green.

Indian markets were in the red in the pre-open deals on Monday as investors remained cautious ahead of th Union Budget 2023, to be tabled later this week. At 9:10 am, the Sensex was down 229 points at 59,101 while the Nifty fell 287 points to 17,604.

“Today the market will be completely dominated by the movements in Adani stocks. The statement from Adani Enterprises that the FPO is on schedule and that there is no change in the price band is hugely important. This can be interpreted as a reflection of the confidence of the management in the success of the FPO. It is important to understand that the stock has limited public float. So, the price crash on Friday happened mainly due to shorting Adani stocks in general and Adani Enterprises in particular. One possibility is a big short-squeeze in the stock. 

Huge volatility is in store in Adani stocks today. The sustained selling by FPIs in January with a massive sell figure of ₹5978 crores last Friday is a bit intriguing. Did the FPIs get wind of the storm blowing now? It is important to note that during the last 3 days, while Nifty declined by 3.2 %, Bank Nifty declined by 6.3% on concerns about the Adani crisis impacting the banks. The correction in high-quality private sector banks is a buying opportunity. Investors may wait for the dust to settle.”

Oil prices climbed in early Asia trade on Monday, supported by tensions in the Middle East following a drone attack in Iran and as Beijing pledged over the weekend to promote a consumption recovery that would support fuel demand. Brent crude futures rose 54 cents, or 0.6%, to $87.20 a barrel by 0115 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $80.22 a barrel, up 54 cents, or 0.7%. Israel appears to have been behind an overnight drone attack on a military factory in Iran, a U.S. official said on Sunday.

Indian shares fell to their lowest level in over a week on Wednesday, dragged by Adani group stocks after a short-seller raised fresh concerns about the group's debt in a report that had a ripple effect across the market. The Nifty 50 index closed 1.25% lower at 17,891.95, while the S&P BSE Sensex fell 1.27% to 60,205.06. 

Stocks of the seven listed Adani group companies fell between 1.5% and 9% after Hindenburg, a well-known U.S. short-seller, said in a report that key listed companies in the group controlled by billionaire Gautam Adani had substantial debt.

Asian shares started cautiously on Monday in a week that is certain to see interest rates rise in Europe and the United States, along with US jobs and wage data that may influence how much further they still have to go.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 11 percent in January at a nine-month high. Early Monday, the index was up 0.1 percent as investors looked forward to China's market resuming after the Lunar New Year holidays, while Japan's Nikkei added 0.2 percent.

Wall Street advanced on Friday, marking the end of a rocky week in which economic data and corporate earnings guidance hinted at softening demand but also economic resiliency ahead of next week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 28.67 points, or 0.08 percent, to 33,978.08, the S&P 500 gained 10.13 points, or 0.25 percent, to 4,070.56 and the Nasdaq Composite added 109.30 points, or 0.95 percent, to 11,621.71.

At 8:20 am, the SGX Nifty was trading 0.5 points lower at 17,689, indicating a flat opening for the Indian markets.

Welcome to MintGenie's market live blog. Catch all live market action, stock reactions, Budget 2023 expectations and more here today. Indian markets are likely to open flat on Monday following caution in Asian peers even after Wall Street rose in overnight deals. Investors also awaited the Union Budget 2023, which will be tabled in Parliament on February 1.