“The Indian market has been underperforming compared to the rest of the world because it has been trading at premium valuations, which are in contrast to the moderation forecasted in the domestic economy for FY24. The premiumization has tapered, currently trading in-line with developed markets like the US; however, we continue to trade at a premium to other emerging markets. The Adani saga has prolonged the correction as FII selling has increased. Now the focus is on the outcome of budget and Fed policy, on which the market has a mixed view.”

Adani Enterprises' follow on public offering (FPO) was oversubscribed 1.02 times on Day 3, driven by strong response from non institutional investors (NIIs) and qualified institutional buyers (QIBs). Retail investors stayed away from the FPO subscription due to the significant price difference between the stock price and the FPO price band. The company plans to raise ₹20,000 crore from the FPO and the proceeds will be used to pay debts and cover some of the company's subsidiaries' capital expenditure needs.

Indian indices, trimmed early losses to end flat but in the green on Tuesday after the Economic survey predicted the FY24 GDP growth at 6-6.8%. The challenge of the depreciating rupee persists, widening of the CAD may also continue, it added. The Sensex ended 13 points higher at 59,549 while the Nifty rose 33 points to settle at 17,662. Broader markets, however, rallied with the midcap index up 1.6 percent and the smallcap index up nearly 3 percent. Volatility index, India VIX fell 4.7 percent in today's deals.

Among sectors, Nifty PSU Bank index surged the most, up over 4 percent followed by Nifty Auto, which advanced nearly 2 percent. Nifty Metal also added 1.5 percent while Nifty Bank recovered to end around 0.66 percent higher. However, Nifty IT shed 1 percent on the back of weak Q3 results by Tech Mahindra. Nifty Pharma and Nifty oil & gas also lost nearly 1 percent each. Bluechips ITC, ICICI Bank and SBI contributed the most to the gains.

“The Economic Survey 2022-23 projects India's economy to grow 6.5% in 2023-24, with growth driven by private consumption, higher capex, and credit growth to small businesses. India remains the fastest-growing major economy in the world, with real GDP growth estimated at 6-6.8%. Inflation is projected to be 6.8%, while the external situation is expected to remain manageable with sufficient forex reserves. Schemes like PM Kisan and PM Garb Kalyan Yojana and credit disbursal are expected to drive growth, with bank credit growth predicted to be brisk. India's resilience helped it withstand the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the stock market gave positive returns in 2022.”

"The performance of the Indian market in the last year has been exceptional compared to the global markets and other emerging markets. The strong expected growth rates for the Indian economy make India an attractive destination for investors. This coupled with the emerging domestic investment landscape has turned Indian capital market into a force.

The Nifty deserves to command a high multiple for several reasons - India becoming an alternate manufacturing destination for the world, India leading in the public digital and financial infrastructure space, domestic focus on job-creation and ease of doing business. The RBI inflict still expects India's growth to be 7% next year, and the world bank looks at 6.9% growth, but these numbers could be impacted if the recessionary fears in the world escalate.

On the other hand we are seeing an increasing flow into the Chinese and European economies in 2023 compared to India - which might be due to valuation concerns. India needs to be on a strong fiscal path and a robust reform path to maintain it’s lead in growth and capital markets."

“Indian Defence allocation for FY23 was Rs.5.25 lakhs cr, 1.9% of GDP, out this the capital outlay grew by modest 10% to Rs.1.5 lakh cr. The current rate of allocation is insufficient owing to the aggressive modernization needs of each of the 3 Indian defence wings (Army, Navy, & Air Force). There is a long-standing view that the defence allocation should be increased to ~3% of GDP. Given the increased perception of threat at the Indian border, the heightened geopolitical tensions, and the government's indigenous drive through Atma Nirbhar Bharat, the market anticipates a 10 to 15% increase in budget allocation for the sectors in FY24.”

The brokerage has maintained a buy call on the stock with a target price of ₹1,550, implying an upside of 35 percent. "Vedant Fashion’s soft SSSG has been underwhelming in Q3FY23 due to a significant shift in wedding days to Q4FY23. Also, the base quarter (Q3FY22) had benefits of deferred wedding due to covid in previous months (especially in Q1FY22). Hence, revenue growth was primarily driven by retail expansion. Weeding-out seasonality, on nine-month basis, high double-digit SSSG is comforting," said ICICI.

Positively, margins stay strong – gross margins maintained while EBITDA and PAT margins expanded meaningfully (highest ever) led by operating leverage. ICICI believes retail expansion rate has been decent, but could be accelerated further. Better than expected operating margins led to beat in PAT estimates. It upgrades earnings estimates by 2-6% over FY23E-FY25E. It has modelled revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 13%/14%/14% over FY22-FY25E.

- GDP growth forecast seen at 6-6.8% (base 6.5%) for FY24 vs 7% for FY23 and 8.7% in FY22

- GDP in nominal terms to be 11% for FY24

- Growth is expected to be driven by private consumption, higher capex, strengthening corporate balance sheet, credit growth to small businesses and return of migrant workers to cities.

- Inflation is projected at 6.8% in FY23

- Borrowing cost to remain higher for longer led by high inflation

- Current Account Deficit (CAD) may widen further led by elevated commodity prices, slowing world growth and global trade which may in turn put pressure on rupee

- India has sufficient forex reserves to finance CAD and intervene in forex market to manage rupee volatility

- Credit growth to small businesses remarkably high at over 30.5% in Jan-Nov’22

- Housing prices rise while inventories decline

- Central govt capex grew by 63.4% in April-Nov’22

- GST payments rise as GST paid by small businesses improved and crossed pre-pandemic levels reflecting effectiveness of targeted government intervention

- Government on track to achieve the target for fiscal deficit in FY23 led by the recovery in economic activity, buoyancy in revenues from direct taxes and GST, and realistic assumptions in the Budget.

- Fiscal deficit at the end of November 2022 stood at 58.9% of the BE, lower than the 5-year average of 104.6% of BE during the same period

- Gross tax revenue grew by 15.5% YoY from April-Nov’22, driven by robust growth in the direct taxes and GST. The growth in direct taxes in first 8 months was much higher than their corresponding longer-term averages.

- GST collections rose by 24.8% on YoY basis during April-Dec’22

The brokerage has initiated coverage on the stock with a buy call on the stock with a target price of ₹1,700, implying a potential upside of 40 percent. Route Mobile (Route) is a leading player in the fast-growing CPaaS market (~27% CAGR), which is being driven by the rise in online activity and digital transactions, said HDFC. Route’s growth will be supported by (1) continued growth in messaging volume; (2) global expansion with several MNO tie-ups (A2P and firewall); (3) traction in new growth areas like OTT and RCS; and (4) up-selling and client mining. Over FY22-25E, it projects revenue/EBITDA/EPS CAGRs of

+36/43/29%.

"Defence sector, as every year before the budget has a wishlist out of which the important one is outlay for emphasis on indigenisation, which means emphasis on local production. The GOI definitely does a lot for the sector every year, also on the R&D side where they plan to spend a substantial amount. Therefore even this year we expect them to announce a significant budget for the space and research, electronic equipment and advancement on further localization.

On PLI schemes we would say that the GOI is fostering healthy competition in the defence space through launching various PLI schemes. This would surely improve the quality of defence products and services and further enhance the defence sector. Also the country needs to improve on their space research, due to which we believe that further PLI schemes will be more focused on Space research."

"Over the past few years, the government has significantly strengthened the ecosystem for digital payments in the country. This momentum has brought a larger section of the population within the fold of formal banking & financial services. We anticipate that the government will propose measures to incentivise digital transactions, thereby accelerating adoption. Strengthening the last-mile delivery of financial services will continue to remain an area of focus”.

Indian indices trimmed losses to turn green after the Economic survey 2023 stated that the FY24 GDP growth is seen at 6-6.8%. However the gains were capped as the eco survey also mentioned that the challenge of the depreciating rupee persists, widening of the CAD may also continue. At 1:50 pm, the Sensex was up 92 points at 59,592 while the Nifty rose 29 points to 17,678. Broader markets were also higher with the midcap and smallcap indices up 1.5 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively. Among sectors, the Banking index recovered to jump around 1 percent. Nifty PSU Bank surged 4 percent, Nifty Metal added 2 percent and Nifty Auto was up 1.7 percent. However, Nifty IT fell 1.2 percent, Nifty Pharma and Nifty oil & gas declined 0.9 percent each.

The automobile sector is a key driver of India’s economic growth. In December 2022, India became the 3rd largest automobile market, surpassing Japan and Germany in terms of sales. In 2021, India was the largest manufacturer of two-wheeler and three-wheeler vehicles and the world’s fourth-largest manufacturer of passenger cars. The sector’s importance is gauged by the fact that it contributes 7.1 percent to the overall GDP and 49 percent to the manufacturing GDP while generating direct and indirect employment of 3.7 crore at the end of 2021.

Indian economy could have grown faster in the absence of financial and corporate balance sheet stress. After peaking in FY21, the fiscal deficit is on a consolidation path. Govt on track to achieve fiscal deficit target of 6.4%.

“The gradual decline in the Union government's fiscal deficit as a % of GDP, in line with the fiscal glide path envisioned by the government, is a result of careful fiscal management supported by buoyant revenue collection over the last two years” stated the Economic survey 2022-23.

The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) mechanism has worked well to support ‘Ease of Doing Business’ in India by easing exits with time-bound resolutions for the companies.

These strengths are helping the financial system absorb external spillovers, tightening global financial conditions and high volatility in financial markets.

The manufacturing landscape further shows uneven growth across various categories, with industries such as automobiles and electronics registering impressive performances while sectors such as textiles have been showing tepid growth, as export demand for these products has been mellowing with the slowing of global output and demand.

Retail inflation is back within RBI's target range in November 2022. While the year 2022 witnessed a return of high inflation in the advanced world after three to four decades, India caps the rise in prices. The RBI’s anchoring of inflationary expectations through forward guidance and responsive monetary policy has helped guide the trajectory of inflation in the country.

GST revenues have improved due to rapid economic recovery post-pandemic, drive against GST evaders and fake bills along with many systemic changes introduced, rate rationalisation.

Revenues have grown at a pace much higher than growth in GDP is testimony to effectiveness of efforts taken by the government to expand the tax base and enhance tax compliance.

Centre on track to meet Non-Tax Revenue targets, committed towards disinvestment but dependent on external factors

NHAI InvIT has raised more than ₹10,200 crore from foreign and Indian institutional investors (up to December 2022).

Annual FDI equity inflows in the manufacturing sector have been steadily increasing over the last few years. It jumped from US$ 12.1 billion in FY21 to US$ 21.3 billion in FY22 as the pandemic-driven expansionary policies of advanced economies led to a surge in global liquidity .

The annual estimate of gross tax revenues for FY23 is expected to overshoot the budget estimates. 

India has sufficient forex reserves to finance the current account deficit, intervene in forex market to manage volatility in rupee. 

The challenge of the depreciating rupee, although better performing than most other currencies, persists with the likelihood of further increases in policy rates by the US Fed. 

The widening of the CAD may also continue as global commodity prices remain elevated and the growth momentum of the Indian economy remains strong. 

The loss of export stimulus is further possible as the slowing world growth and trade shrinks the global market size in the second half of the current year.

The reforms being undertaken in energy and power sector will help fast-track India's progress in the next 25 years. The government, along with private sector, has progressively worked towards increasing the share of renewables. This will ensure a gradual but calibrated energy transition, meeting the country’s sustainability targets and giving primacy to its national developmental requirements.

Inflation challenge in FY24 must be a lot less stiff than it has been this year. The unemployment rate declined from 8.3% in July-Sep 2019 to 7.2% in July-Sep 2022. 

Inflation did not "creep too far above" tolerance range compared to several advanced nations. The growth in exports has moderated in second half of current fiscal; the surge in growth rate in 2021-22 and first half of current fiscal led to production processes shifting gears from 'mild acceleration' to 'cruise mode'

The country is now a global force in steel production and the 2nd largest crude steel producer in the world. The steel sector’s performance in the current fiscal year has been robust, with cumulative production and consumption of finished steel at 88 MT and 86 MT, respectively.

In response to subdued global demand because of Covid-19 induced restrictions, the price of the Indian basket of crude oil during FY21 stayed in the range of US$20-65/bbl.

Slowing demand will likely push down global commodity prices and improve India’s CAD in FY24.

Evidence shows an increasing trend in announced projects and capex spending by the private players. Surveys of leading industry CEOs also reveal their plans and commitment to increasing Capex.

Cumulative FDI in the pharma sector crossed the US$ 20 billion mark in September 2022. Further, FDI inflows have increased four-fold over five years until September 2022, to $699 million. Growth in pharmaceutical output has slowed due to an unfavourable base effect and the waning of the pandemic

Recovery is complete says the survey. On the current trend, the full year’s capital expenditure budget will be met. An increase in infrastructure investment provides a critical push to the potential growth of the economy. The outlay for capital expenditure in 2022-23 (BE) was increased sharply by 35.4 percent from 5.5 lakh crore in the previous year (2021-22) to 7.5 lakh crore, of which approximately 67 percent has been spent from April to December 2022

Central and State Governments’ budgeted expenditure on the health sector reached 2.1 percent of GDP in FY23 (BE) and 2.2 percent in FY22 (RE), against 1.6 percent in FY21. 

Centre's Capital expenditure for Road Transport and Highways in Apr-Nov FY23 stood at ₹1.49 lakh crore rise of 102% YoY

Centre's Capital expenditure for Defence Services (capital outlay) in Apr-Nov FY23 stood at ₹1.52 lakh crore rise of 0.88% YoY

India to remain the fastest-growing major economy in the world.

The economy has nearly recouped what was lost, renewed what had paused; re-energised what had slowed during the pandemic.

India is the third-largest economy in the world in PPP (purchasing power parity) terms; 5th largest in terms of exchange rate.

India's economy is likely to grow 6.5% in 2023-24 compared to 7% in the current fiscal, 8.7% in 2021-22. Real GDP growth to be in the range of 6-6.8% next fiscal depending on global economic, political developments

6.8% inflation for current fiscal not high enough to deter private consumption or low enough to weaken investment.

If inflation declines in FY24 and if the real cost of credit does not rise, then credit growth is likely to be brisk in FY24.

The Challenge of the depreciating rupee, although better performing than most other currencies, persists with the likelihood of further increases in policy rates by the US Fed.

The widening of the CAD may also continue as global commodity prices remain elevated and the growth momentum of the Indian economy remains strong.

Rupee may come under pressure if CAD widens further

Strong domestic demand amid high prices to raise import bill

Domestic demand, and capital expenditure pick up to aid growth

Annual nominal GDP growth potential to be around 10 percent to 12 percent on average in the coming years

Fiscal parameters will continue to improve

Finance Minister Sitharaman tables Economic Survey for 2022-23 in the Parliament, FY24 GDP growth seen at 6-6.8%.

State-run oil refiner Bharat Petroleum posted higher-than-expected gross refining margins (GRM) of $15.9 per barrel while the Street expected $14.5/bbl. GRM is the amount that refiners earn from turning each barrel of crude oil into fuel products. On a yearly basis, BPCL's GRM was higher by $6/bbl. Meanwhile, BPCL posted a 37 percent year-on-year drop in Q3 net profit to ₹1,747 crore. In Q3, the company's revenue from operations came in at ₹1.33 lakh crore, rising 13.48 percent from ₹1.17 lakh crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year, it said in an exchange filing.

Shares of Mangalore Chemicals and Fertilisers climbed 8 percent in the morning session on January 31, a day after the company declared its December quarter earnings. Net profit of Mangalore Chemicals and Fertilizers jumped 145.16 percent to ₹76.17 crore for the quarter ended December 2022, as against ₹31.07 crore a year back. The company's sales spiked 54.03 percent to ₹1173.24 crore in the quarter ended December 2022 as against ₹761.70 crore in the previous corresponding quarter.

Total Subscription: 29%, QIBs: 50%, NIIs: 55%, Retail: 7%, Employees: 27%

President Droupadi Murmu joint address in the Parliament has concluded. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Economic Survey 2023 shortly.

Indian markets recovered a bit but then fell again dragged by IT and oil & gas stocks. Meanwhile, auto, metals and PSU banks continued to hold on to their gains. At 12:23 pm, the Sensex fell 175 points to 59,324 while the Nifty lost 42 points to 17,607.

Indian markets trimmed losses to turn flat led by a recovery in banking stocks. While metals, auto and PSU bank indices surge, IT continues to decline. At 12:06 pm, Sensex was down 39 points at 59,461 while the Nifty fell 9 points to 17,639. Broader markets also jumped with the midcap index up 1.3 percent and smallcap index up 2.2 percent. Among sectors, PSU Bank index rallied the most, up over 3% followed by Nifty Metal, up 1.9% and Nifty Auto, up 1.4%. Nifty Bank also turned green and was up 0.6 percent. However, Nifty IT and Nifty oil & Gas continued to decline, down 1.2 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively. Nifty FMCG and Nifty Pharma were also in the red.

More than three lakh crore rupees of transactions have happened on the Government e-marketplace till now.

The benefits of more than 300 government schemes are now transferred digitally.

Govt has transferred more than ₹27 lakh crore via DBT.

Ayushmaan Bharat scheme has resulted in ₹80,000 cr of savings for the poor.

Govt has passed legislation to tackle fugitive economic offenders.

Govt e-marketplace has seen transactions worth over ₹3 lakh crore.

We praise people who support us to fight corruption.

Taxpayers are getting refunds within days of filing IT returns.

Manufacturing capacity in India is on the rise, international manufacturers are coming to India.

India is heading towards manufacturing of semi-conductors, airplane parts.

Govt efforts have led to defence exports rising 6 times.

India has become global manufacturing hub for mobile phones and parts

The brokerage has a buy call on the stock with a target price of ₹2,750, implying a potential upside of 49%. "ATBS (key product of Vinati) demand is likely to stay strong (12% CAGR CY21-28) as oil drilling activities globally remain robust after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Exports form a major part of revenue and ATBS is the largest product of VO which currently contributes 48% to its overall revenue. Vinati also enjoys >65% global market share in IBB, which is one of the main raw materials used in the production of Ibuprofen. Demand for both this product remains strong," said MOSL.

Though global oil market volatility persists due to concerns on both demand and supply, MOSL believes that near-term ATBS demand should remain strong and VO’s realizations would be healthy in the export market. It expects 35% PAT CAGR over FY22-24E and RoE to improve to 26% for FY24. The stock has corrected by 22% from its 52-week high which provides a good entry point.

India's annual pre-budget economic survey is likely to peg GDP growth at 6-6.8 percent for 2023-24, Reuters reported, quoting a source.

The government survey is likely to say that growth is seen at 6.5 percent for 2023-24 under the baseline scenario, the person said, declining to be named as the matter was confidential. This would be the slowest in three years. Nominal growth is likely to be forecast at 11 percent for 2023-24, the source added. 

India no longer depends on other countries to solve its issues, rather other countries are looking at India to help them out with their problems

India is known for development, moving away from days of policy paralysis

We need to work towards making a self-dependent India.

India today is in a much better position compared to other nations because of the government's policy decisions

Amid the unstable global economic situation, India's budget will attempt to meet aspirations of the common citizens. I firmly believe that Nirmala Sitharaman will make all efforts to meet those aspirations, PM Modi said. India's Budget now keenly watched globally now, he added.

Adani Ports recovered to rise as much as 4.1 percent in today's deals to its day's high of ₹621.75. It had fallen nearly 1.5 percent in early deals to ₹588. Adani Ent also sirged as much as 5.7 percent to its day's high of ₹3,045, extending gains for the second straight session despite the Hindenburg allegations. Adani Green fell 9.6 percent in early deals to its day's low of ₹1,073 but later trimmed losses to now trade only 2 percent lower.

Adani Total Gas was trading at its 10% lower circuit at ₹2,112.90. Adani Power and Adani Wilmar also continued trading at their 5% lower circuit.

Adani Transmission witnessed a sharp recovery in intra-day deals. the stock, which fell as much as 8.6 percent to ₹1,562 trimmed losses to surge as much as 7,3 percent to its day's high of ₹1,836. The stock is up 17.5 percent from its day's low.

1. India's domestic consumption story is faltering because of high inflation. I expect tax breaks in terms of higher rebates to stimulate domestic consumption.

2. Asset monetization is going to be key. The 5G auction is going to be key to raise cash. The 3700-4200 MHz and 4700-4800 MHz spectrums are available for auction.

3. Energy autonomy will mostly be an important theme. India has reduced import duties on heavy-scale batteries and I'm predicting 25000 crores allocated to strengthening the energy grid.

4. The PLI (Productivity Linked Incentive) Scheme which promotes manufacturing within India will be extended to MSMEs. Currently, it's for large firms only.

Larsen and Toubro on January 30 reported a consolidated net profit of ₹2,553 crore for the December quarter of 2022-23, up 24 percent from the year-ago period, on better execution of infrastructure projects and continued growth in the IT&TS portfolio. Revenue from operations zoomed to ₹46,390 crore, 17 percent above the corresponding quarter last year, the company said in an exchange filing. L&T stock fell nearly 2 percent post its Q3 results.

Life Insurance Corporation (LIC), India's largest institutional investor, issued a clarification on January 30, regarding its exposure to the Adani group of companies in the light of huge volatility in the share prices of the Adani group of companies. LIC has clarified that the total value of Adani group company shares it has purchased over the last many years is ₹30,127 crore. This amounts to a market value of ₹56,142 crore, based on the closing price on January 27.

This exposure by LIC in the Adani group as on date is 0.975 percent of the total assets under management (AUM) at book value. LIC further said that the credit rating of all of Adani's debt securities is ‘AA’ and above, and hence its investments comply with IRDAI (Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India) guidelines. 

Shares of Adani Enterprises recovered on Monday, but they still stood below the price band of India’s largest ever follow-on public offer (FPO), thanks to a recent selloff in the entire Adani pack after serious allegations by Hindenburg Research. The stock settled the day 4 percent higher at ₹2,878.50 against the price band of ₹3,112-3,276, with the ₹20,000-crore offer to receive a mere 3 percent subscription at the last count. The FPO will conclude today, January 31. Out of 2.29 crore shares reserved for retail investors, they have put in bids for only 8.47 lakh shares, that is, nearly 4 percent of the retail quota. Read More

Tech Mahindra fell nearly 4% after it reported a consolidated net profit of ₹1,297 crore for the December quarter of the financial year 2022-23, down 5.3 percent. Profit after tax (PAT) stood at ₹1,368 crore a year ago.

Revenue from operations came in at ₹13,735 crore, rising 19.9 percent from ₹11,450 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year, the information technology services firm said in an exchange filing. In constant currency terms, revenue grew by 0.2 percent QoQ (quarter-on-quarter) while the Street expected a 0.4 percent growth.

Net new deal wins for the quarter came in at $795 million, higher than $704 million in the year-ago period. IT attrition moderated to 17 percent from 20 percent in Q2 FY23 and 24 percent in Q3 FY22.

Indian markets pared gains to turn red on Tuesday dragged by IT, oil & gas, pharma, and FMCG sectors. At 9:47 am, the Sensex was down 235 points at 59,264 while the Nifty fell 77 points to rs 17,572. Broader markets were mixed with the midcap index down 0.2 percent and smallcap index up 0.2 percent. Nifty IT lost the most, down 1.5% after Tech Mahindra reported weak results. Nifty FMCG, Nifty Realty and Nifty oil & gas also shed around 0.9 percent each. Nifty Bank and Nifty Financial also pared gains to turn negative, down 0.3 percent each. However, Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Auto and Nifty Metal remained in the green.

Daily circuit limit for Adani Total Gas, Adani Trans & Adani Green revised to 10% from 20%

All Adani Group stocks, except Adani Enterprises, extended losses as the Adani-Hindenburg saga continued. Adani Enterprises rose around 2% while Adani Ports lost the least, down 1%. Adani Transmission, Adani Power, Adani Green, Adani Total, Gas, and Adani Wilmar shed between 4-10% each.

Most sectors were in the green in early deals with the banks, financials and metal indices leading. Nifty PSU Bank index gained the most, up 1.3 percent followed by Nifty Metal, up 1 percent. Nifty Bank, Nifty Financial Services and Nifty Auto also rose around half a percent each. Nifty IT and Nifty oil & gas were in the red.

Indian markets opened higher on the back of positive global cues and supportive macro predictions. Investors also awaited the Economic Survey 2023, which will be tabled in Parliament later today. At 9:15 am, the Sensex was up 123 points at 59,623 while the Nifty rose 67 points to 17,716. Broader markets were also in the green with the midcap and smallcap indices up 0.36 percent and 0.46 percent, respectively.

“The Budget tomorrow and the Fed decision on interest rates by evening tomorrow will have a big impact on markets. A positive, as we go into the Budget, is that instead of the usual pre-Budget rally on expectations, this time we had a market correction triggered by the Adani crisis. So, if there are no negative surprises in the Budget and the Fed commentary is not hawkish, there can be a post-Budget rally in the market. The Adani crisis which had impacted market sentiments will be pushed to the back burner if the FPO sails through via institutional investment. There has been an overreaction in banking stocks with Bank Nifty correcting sharply by 6.2% in the last 3 sessions. High-quality banking stocks present a good buying opportunity. Signals from the US indicate that Indian IT will do well in 2023.”

In 2023, the global economic output is now seen growing by 2.9 percent, up from the 2.7 percent forecast earlier. The forecast for the US for 2023 has been raised by 40 basis points to 1.4 percent, while that for China has been increased by a substantial 80 basis points to 5.2 percent. Worryingly for China, the IMF said growth may fall to 4.5 percent in 2024 and settle at "below 4 percent over the medium term amid declining business dynamism and slow progress on structural reforms". 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has retained its GDP growth forecasts for India for 2022-23 and 2023-24 at 6.8 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively. Released on January 31 – a day before Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presents the Union Budget for 2023-24 – the IMF said while the economy will slow down next year, it will subsequently pick up pace.

"Growth in India is set to decline from 6.8 percent in 2022-23 to 6.1 percent in 2023-24 before picking up to 6.8 percent in 2024-25, with resilient domestic demand despite external headwinds," the IMF said in an update to its World Economic Outlook report.

Equity benchmarks the Sensex and the Nifty ended in the green, snapping their two-day losing run on January 30, supported by gains in shares of select index heavyweights, including Bajaj Finance, Infosys and Reliance Industries. The sentiment of the market, however, remained weak due to the Ambani-Hindenburg saga and caution ahead of the Union Budget and Fed outcome. The Nifty50 closed at 17,648.95, up 45 points, or 0.25 percent.

Asian shares traded cautiously and bonds nursed small losses on Tuesday as investors braced for an eventful week that includes central bank meetings, a slew of earnings reports and key U.S. economic data. Investors broadly expect the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday. Rate announcements are due on Thursday from both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank - and both are expected to hike rates by 50 bps. 

Early in the Asian trading day, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.1%. U.S. stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis, rose 0.1%. Japan's Nikkei stock index slid 0.1% while Australian shares were up 0.2%. China's blue-chip CSI300 index remained flat in early trade. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index opened up 0.4%.

A gauge of global stocks retreated on Monday after six sessions of gains while US Treasury yields rose ahead of central bank policy announcements and data that may shed light on whether progress has been made in bringing down inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 260.99 points, or 0.77 percent, to 33,717.09, the S&P 500 lost 52.79 points, or 1.30 percent, to 4,017.77 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 227.90 points, or 1.96 percent, to 11,393.81.

At 8:20 am, the SGX Nifty was trading 83 points or 0.5 percent higher at 17,788, indicating a positive opening for the Indian markets.

Welcome to MintGenie's market live blog. Catch all live market action, stock reactions, Economic survey updates, Budget 2023 expectations and more here today. Indian markets are likely to open higher on Tuesday following gains in global peers and supportive macro predictions. Investors also awaited the Union Budget 2023, which will be tabled in Parliament on February 1.