A strong, across-the-board selling engulfed the Indian market on February 24 as investors panicked over Russia’s rising aggression on Ukraine which has the potential to turn into a bigger global crisis.
As per fresh media reports, Russian forces have invaded Ukraine which is one of the biggest attacks by one state against another in Europe since World War Two. Russia’s latest moves have raised worries as to how the situation will pan out in days to come.
The latest geopolitical tension has shot up crude oil prices which dragged the rupee down, dealing a blow to the market sentiment. Brent crude prices rose above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014.
The market witnessed panic selling throughout the day. Equity barometer the Sensex plunged 2849 points while the Nifty fell near 16,200 in intraday trade. Eventually, the Sensex closed 2702 points, or 4.72 percent, down at 54,529.91 while Nifty ended the day with a massive cut of 4.78 percent at 16,247.95. BSE Midcap and smallcap indices suffered more, falling 5.53 percent and 5.77 percent, respectively.
The overall market cpaitalisation of BSE-listed firms plunged to ₹242.3 lakh crore from ₹255.7 crore, making investors poorer by ₹13.4 lakh crore in a single day. It was the seventh consecutive day of market fall.
Nearly 280 stocks hit their 52-week lows on BSE in intraday trade while about 1,047 stocks hit their lower circuits on BSE. Out of 3,478 stocks that traded on BSE, 3,159 declined today.
What should investors do now?
Analysts see the Russia-Ukraine episode as a near-term threat to the market but don’t see great harm to the market in the medium to long term.
“We believe that market stabilization is likely in the short term. Medium to long term thesis on Indian equities remain intact amid economic recovery as reflected by key macroeconomic indicators, strong capex spends and robust corporate earnings. Nifty earnings growth is likely at 21.5 % CAGR over FY21-24. We continue to see this correction as an opportunity for the investors to add on the companies with sustainable growth visibility,” said Vijay Chandok - MD & CEO, ICICI Securities.
Analysts also say one should stick to large cap quality stocks for the time being and avoid heavy selling.
Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities highlighted that the market may swing both ways for the next few days. Investors who are not adequately invested in equities can take this opportunity to top up their equity holding either by lumpsum investment or SIP.
In the short term, the market is expected to remain volatile and Nifty may find a bottom near 16,000 level.
“Our research suggests that sustaining above 16,400 will be an important level for the market. If the market is unable to sustain above 16,400, we can expect a correction to continue till the level of 16,000. Technical indicators suggest a volatile movement to continue in the market,” said Vijay Dhanotiya, lead of Technical Research at CapitalVia Global Research.
