Is it a good time to enter market? Here's where top brokerages see Nifty by the end of 2023

Axis Securities: Naveen Kulkarni, Chief Investment Officer, Axis Securities PMS, has set the Nifty target for 2023 at 20,400, indicating an upside of 12 percent from its previous close of 18,127.35 (as on Dec 22). He believes that the Indian market will continue to attract flows from global investors as India continues to remain an island of stability amidst global turmoil. ‘This destination of 20,400 by 2023 will not be linear, as we expect markets to continue to witness bouts of heightened volatility within the year,’ he said.

Nomura: The brokerage expects a flattish market return through 2023 on the back of earnings risks and elevated market valuations. It has set a Nifty target of 19,030 for 2023, indicating an upside of just 5 percent. The macros-growth-inflation dynamics remain uncertain and will likely continue to influence the market movement in 2023, it said. While it expects the Indian market to be unstirred on any negative rate/inflation surprise, it is likely to be sensitive to the overall growth outlook.

BofA Securities: The brokerage has set 19,500 as the Nifty target for 2023, indicating an upside of 7.5 percent. Nifty would fluctuate 10 percent up and down at max from current levels in 2023—somewhere between 17,000 to 20,000 levels—to settle at 19,500 towards the end of the year, it said. While persistent volatility is expected, the target implies that India could underperform emerging markets but outperform developed markets, it added.

Goldman Sachs: The brokerage expects the benchmark Nifty 50 index to touch 20,500, implying an upside of 13 percent from current levels. It will be led by mid-teen earnings growth and a modest P/E compression (as light foreign positioning and geopolitical factors could support India’s multiples), GS said. ‘Returns are likely to be backloaded, as growth recovers in 2H and equity flows pick up,’ added the brokerage.

ICICI Direct: The brokerage sees headline equity index Nifty hitting the 21,200 mark in 2023, indicating an upside of 17 percent led by heavyweight sectors like banking and IT. The brokerage noted that it expects volatility to remain subdued in the near term extending the decoupling from global peers. It further sees foreign portfolio investor (FPI) inflows to remain strong due to the continued outperformance of Indian markets.

Kotak Securities: The brokerage has a Nifty 2023 target of 18,717, indicating an upside of around 3 percent. This is partly also because of the stretched valuations, it said. Currently, India is the most expensive market within the emerging market pack. It is trading at close to 20 times its one-year forward earnings. Kotak Securities expects the Indian economy to do well in the medium term, supported by a favourable policy environment, however, macroeconomic headwinds persist, and the fight against inflation is far from over, it said.

UBS: The brokerage has a Nifty 2023 target of 18,000, indicating a downside of around 1 percent on the back of fast-ebbing household inflows into equities, whittling down foreign inflows, and rising bank deposit rates. India is among its top underweight markets in the emerging market space in 2023, it said. More than earnings, it noted that the trajectory of the market will be influenced by valuations in the next 12 months.