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Here's what a look at history indicates about recession  

The Fed has increased interest rates by 450 bps in quick succession, taking borrowing rates to 2007 levels.

Historically, rapid rate hikes have resulted in recessions, and all recessions have been preceded by positive real interest rates.

The inflation rate is currently above 6%, so the Fed needs to increase the rate to 6% in order to pause.

The 1973 recession was triggered by double-digit inflation, with the Federal Reserve raising the interest rate from 5.5 % to 13 %.

The 1981-1982 recession was caused by tight monetary policies in an effort to combat inflation.

The early 2000's recession was triggered by Fed rate hikes, with the real interest rate reaching 10.4% and the interest rate on 10-year Treasury, adjusted for inflation, averaging 2.5%.

The 2007-2008 recession was caused by a housing bubble, with the Fed raising interest rates 17 times from 2004-2006.

In 2020, the Fed lowered interest rates in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

To avoid a recession, the Fed must keep the real interest rate positive, which is currently negative due to high inflation.

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Here's what a look at history indicates about recession

Centrum Broking, in its recent report, has analysed each of the recession periods of the past, to understand if there is a visible pattern that may precede a recession.

Is a recession coming? Here's what a look at history indicates

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Here's what a look at history indicates about recession

Centrum Broking, in its recent report, has analysed each of the recession periods of the past, to understand if there is a visible pattern that may precede a recession.

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