Sonam Srivastava, Founder of Wright Research, an investment advisory firm, believes that the Indian market can hit its peak if the current positive trend continues or if the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes. In an interview with MintGenie, Srivastava said that the Indian market is currently in a fair-valued position. Talking about the US recession's impact, she noted that for short-term traders, this uncertainty could be challenging, but long-term investors may be better positioned to weather such a crisis, as they have in previous instances.
Edited excerpts:
Indian markets are less than 3 percent away from their peaks. Do you believe when it comes to valuations, India is in a sweet spot?
The Indian market is currently considered to be in a fair-valued position based on the ratio of total market capitalization over GDP and the inclusion of the total assets of the central bank. This balanced valuation could be viewed as a "sweet spot" by some investors. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have shown aggressive buying interest in the Indian market, further highlighting its attractiveness. Additionally, India's projected growth rate of 7.2% remains higher than that of many major markets, which adds to the positive outlook for the country's valuation. However, it's important to note that market conditions can rapidly change due to various factors such as economic developments, geopolitical events, corporate earnings, and investor sentiment. Therefore, while the current valuation is encouraging, it does not guarantee price appreciation, and investors should monitor market conditions closely.
Are the current levels fair to buy more stocks or should one wait to buy on dips?
Given the current market conditions, the decision to buy more stocks or wait for dips depends on individual investment goals and risk tolerance. On one hand, the index has been breaking long-term resistance levels and showing strength in the short term, which could be seen as a favorable opportunity to buy for short-term gains. However, there are potential risks in the medium term, including the ongoing debt ceiling negotiations, recession fears, and concerns about interest rates. These factors may strengthen the case for adopting a "buy on dips" approach. The outcome of the next Fed meeting and any potential pause in interest rate hikes could serve as a significant buy signal. Ultimately, investors should remain data-driven and assess their investment strategy based on their own analysis and objectives.
Do you see Nifty hitting its all-time high this year? If yes, by when can we expect it?
While it is difficult to predict the exact timing, there are factors that could support the Nifty reaching its all-time high this year. Strong GDP growth projections, a positive earnings outlook, favorable valuations, and continued price momentum are some of the factors working in favor of the market. However, there are also potential risks to consider, such as the outcome of US debt ceiling negotiations, a weak global economic outlook, and recessionary fears. Timing market cycles is challenging, but if the current positive trend continues or if the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes, it could potentially expedite the Nifty's journey toward its all-time high.
What factors can lead to that (all-time high)?
Several factors can contribute to the Nifty index reaching its all-time high. Strong economic growth, driven by increased consumption, investments, and government reforms, can boost corporate earnings and investor confidence. A positive earnings outlook, with companies surpassing market expectations, can attract investors and drive stock prices higher. Favorable valuations, either compared to historical levels or global markets, can attract buyers seeking potential gains. Positive market sentiment, fueled by optimism and positive news, can generate momentum and push the market higher. Favorable global economic conditions, supportive monetary policies, and foreign investments can have a positive impact. Government policies promoting business growth, ease of doing business, and infrastructure development can enhance investor sentiment.
What themes should one look at while building a portfolio in the current scenario?
When building a portfolio in the current scenario, several themes can be considered. Firstly, capital goods and infrastructure companies may benefit from the government's infrastructure push and increased private spending. Secondly, the banking sector offers potential due to strong loan growth, robust balance sheets, and a favorable outlook. The pharmaceutical sector presents opportunities with its strong growth potential, favorable valuations, and the potential benefit of lower commodity prices. The IT sector shows resilience and the potential for revival in the US technology market, driven by digital transformation and technology adoption. Diversification across sectors and careful risk management are important.
In this volatile market, which sector should one stay away from?
In a volatile market, it is advisable to exercise caution and be selective with sectors that carry higher risks. Two sectors to consider avoiding are the IT sector and commodity-linked sectors such as metals, oil and gas.
The IT sector is vulnerable to external factors such as global economic conditions, technology trends, and regulatory changes. Market volatility can impact client spending on IT services, potentially affecting revenue and profitability. Currency fluctuations and visa restrictions can further impact companies with international exposure.
Commodity-linked sectors are highly influenced by volatile commodity prices, which are subject to global demand, geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and policy changes. During periods of market volatility, commodity prices can experience increased volatility, posing risks for companies operating in these sectors.
What implications can the recent debt ceiling negotiations have for India?
If the U.S. doesn't raise the debt ceiling, it risks a government default, leading to potential shockwaves in global financial markets and a likely stock market crash. Such an event could also push the U.S. economy into a recession. In the past, the U.S. has always reached a compromise to avoid such a scenario, but the current situation remains uncertain. Current signs of economic weakness in the U.S., such as slowing consumption, stagnant wage growth, and high inflation, could exacerbate the situation. The impact on stock markets is unpredictable in case of a default followed by a recession. For short-term traders, this uncertainty could be challenging, but long-term investors may be better positioned to weather such a crisis, as they have in previous instances.
There have been talks about the US recession. If that happens, how will India react to it? Is that priced in?
Even if a deal is reached to avert a default related to the U.S. debt ceiling, there's concern that a recession may still occur given existing weaknesses in the U.S. economy. Despite low unemployment rates, U.S. economic indicators reveal slow consumption, stagnant wage growth, non-improving manufacturing output, and persistently high inflation. Many predict a recession by year-end even without a debt ceiling crisis. In this context, financial market reactions are uncertain. Stock markets may rise in the short term if a default is averted, but could drop if the recession likelihood increases. The uncertainty hinders market trends, making short-term trading challenging.
One piece of advice for new investors?
To be a successful investor, it's essential to be disciplined and follow a systematic approach. Set clear investment goals and create a well-defined plan that suits your risk tolerance. Once you have a plan, stick to it and avoid making impulsive decisions based on short-term market movements. Regularly monitor your investments and make adjustments as needed to maintain your desired asset allocation. Consider automating your investments to stay disciplined and consistent. Stay informed about investing principles and market trends to make informed decisions. By maintaining discipline and following a systematic approach, you increase your chances of long-term investment success and achieving your financial goals.
