Equity barometer Nifty ended in the green for the third consecutive session on April 3. The index is now at 17,400 and analysts expect it to breach 17,500 soon.
However, the question is if the index can sustain above that as the market is not out of woods yet. MintGenie collated views of analysts and brokerage firms on how could Nifty move in April. Here's what they said:
ICICI Direct
The brokerage firm expects the index to gain further towards the higher band of channel placed around 17,600, sustainability above which will accelerate Nifty towards 18,100 in the coming quarter.
However, the brokerage firm said this recovery may not be non-linear and bouts of volatility cannot be ruled out.
"We expect the index to gradually head towards 17,600 based on the following pieces of evidence: (a) the breakout implication of current consolidation 17,200-16,800, (b) the upper band of the downward slanting channel is placed at 17,600, and (c) 200-day EMA (exponential moving average) is placed at 17,520," said ICICI Direct.
Aamar Deo Singh, Head Advisory, Angel One Ltd
Nifty has witnessed a sharp recovery from the recent low of 16,828 on the back of receding investor fears and expectations of rate hikes tapering off globally, going forward.
However, the markets are not yet out of the woods but it appears that we are seeing a short-term bottom.
"The key index movers such as Reliance, HDFC twins, IT majors TCS and Infosys, all indicate a respite from the recent selloff. Nifty needs to sustain above the 17,360-17,380 zone consistently, to march towards the 17,500 mark," said the analyst.
Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research, HDFC Securities
A close above 17,574 is necessary for the Nifty to scale greater heights. Once this is accomplished, a move towards 18,135 and later 18,476 is possible. This close above 17,574 can happen if we do not get any more negative news on the domestic or international front.
Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit Financial Services
At 17,426, Nifty would have retraced 62 percent of March’s fall, which would take some momentum off the upside trajectory. This necessitates deft handling of the opening gains.
"We would wait for a close above 17,540 before the recharting course to 17,800. The alternate scenario sees a pullback and consolidation, without allowing slippage past 17,230 for the week, allowing the resumption of an uptrend in the next week," said the analyst.
"A fall back below 17,230 could be a bear call though, but it may not be until below 17,100 before downside momentum increases. This, while being one of the probable scenarios, we are still rooting for this week to weather all storms, and clear course for 17,800 soon," the analyst said.
Rahul Ghose, Founder & CEO – Hedged, an algorithm-powered advisory platform
Nifty will most likely break the 17,500 level in the April series as the momentum is towards the upside. Although we are not in a strong uptrend, the texture of the market has shifted sideways to up from vanilla sideways.
The three factors supporting this move on the upside are - Nifty has formed a divergence and also a bullish candlestick pattern at its recent support zone.
Two, the Nifty has a very large amount of put writers at the 17,000 level for the April monthly expiry, but the highest call writers are only at the 18,000 level giving enough room on the upside.
Third and finally, the March series saw a huge short build-up by the FIIs to the tune of almost 90 percent, when they unwind their positions or book profits, this will further fuel the current rally and take prices above 17,500.
There is another point that can further support this hypothesis, and that is Nifty currently being in a weekly demand area which ends at 16,750. So, until 17,000 is taken out decisively, the texture of the market would be to buy on dips.
Rameshver Dongre, Research Analyst - Equity Research, CapitalVia Global Research
The overall trend of the Nifty50 is bullish. This year, it is in a correction phase. Last month, it experienced a major support level of 16,900 and reversed back into positive sentiment.
"One should keep a bullish view of the market. Nifty is expected to move up from the support zone of 16,900–17,000 with a stop loss of 16,640. On the higher side, 17,500 levels can be the next hurdle. As per the MACD histogram, which is above the zero line with a positive crossover on daily charts, I expect positive momentum can be continued and we can see 17,700 levels this month," said Dongre.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts and broking firms. These do not represent the views of MintGenie.
